Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 16,397
2 New Jersey 14,441
3 Massachusetts 10,023
4 Rhode Island 9,111
5 Connecticut 8,406
6 District of Columbia 7,325
7 Louisiana 6,382
8 Delaware 5,430
9 Illinois 5,037
10 Michigan 4,398
11 Maryland 4,368
12 Pennsylvania 4,139
13 Nebraska 3,166
14 Iowa 3,075
15 Indiana 3,046
16 South Dakota 3,015
17 Colorado 2,917
18 Georgia 2,670
19 Mississippi 2,646
20 Virginia 2,283
21 Washington 2,058
22 Tennessee 1,953
23 New Mexico 1,922
24 New Hampshire 1,903
25 Kansas 1,841
26 Nevada 1,826
27 Ohio 1,751
28 Florida 1,717
29 Utah 1,661
30 Alabama 1,654
31 North Dakota 1,607
32 Vermont 1,445
33 Missouri 1,429
34 California 1,425
35 Wisconsin 1,414
36 South Carolina 1,312
37 Minnesota 1,282
38 Arizona 1,225
39 Kentucky 1,200
40 Arkansas 1,149
41 Texas 1,142
42 North Carolina 1,131
43 Idaho 1,089
44 Oklahoma 1,021
45 Maine 896
46 Wyoming 767
47 West Virginia 682
48 Oregon 654
49 Puerto Rico 577
50 Alaska 503
51 Hawaii 432
52 Montana 427

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 265
2 District of Columbia 241
3 Massachusetts 230
4 Nebraska 221
5 Rhode Island 217
6 Illinois 204
7 Iowa 192
8 New York 182
9 Maryland 161
10 Delaware 126
11 Connecticut 113
12 Virginia 101
13 Kansas 100
14 Indiana 92
15 Minnesota 88
16 Pennsylvania 84
17 New Mexico 82
18 Mississippi 74
19 Tennessee 72
20 Louisiana 68
21 New Hampshire 68
22 Colorado 65
23 Georgia 60
24 Alabama 55
25 South Dakota 53
26 Michigan 52
27 Wisconsin 52
28 North Dakota 51
29 Utah 51
30 Missouri 50
31 Ohio 49
32 Arizona 43
33 Nevada 40
34 Kentucky 36
35 California 33
36 Florida 33
37 South Carolina 32
38 Texas 32
39 North Carolina 30
40 Washington 29
41 Puerto Rico 28
42 Oklahoma 24
43 Maine 20
44 Arkansas 17
45 Oregon 14
46 West Virginia 13
47 Wyoming 13
48 Vermont 12
49 Idaho 11
50 Alaska 2
51 Montana 1
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 998
2 New Jersey 890
3 Connecticut 716
4 Massachusetts 593
5 Louisiana 428
6 Michigan 414
7 District of Columbia 365
8 Rhode Island 321
9 Pennsylvania 224
10 Illinois 210
11 Maryland 201
12 Delaware 186
13 Indiana 170
14 Colorado 147
15 Georgia 115
16 Washington 111
17 Mississippi 104
18 Ohio 90
19 Nevada 86
20 Vermont 84
21 Virginia 80
22 Minnesota 75
23 New Mexico 74
24 Florida 65
25 Missouri 63
26 New Hampshire 63
27 Alabama 60
28 Oklahoma 60
29 Iowa 59
30 Kentucky 59
31 California 58
32 Wisconsin 58
33 South Carolina 54
34 Kansas 52
35 Arizona 49
36 North Carolina 43
37 Maine 42
38 Nebraska 40
39 Idaho 35
40 North Dakota 32
41 Tennessee 32
42 Texas 31
43 West Virginia 27
44 Arkansas 26
45 Oregon 25
46 South Dakota 23
47 Puerto Rico 16
48 Utah 15
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 20
2 Rhode Island 19
3 Massachusetts 18
4 New Jersey 13
5 New York 13
6 District of Columbia 12
7 Michigan 8
8 Delaware 7
9 Maryland 6
10 Illinois 5
11 Pennsylvania 5
12 Indiana 4
13 Louisiana 4
14 Virginia 4
15 Minnesota 3
16 Mississippi 3
17 New Mexico 3
18 Georgia 2
19 Kansas 2
20 Arizona 1
21 Arkansas 1
22 California 1
23 Colorado 1
24 Florida 1
25 Iowa 1
26 Kentucky 1
27 Missouri 1
28 Nebraska 1
29 Nevada 1
30 New Hampshire 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Ohio 1
33 South Carolina 1
34 Vermont 1
35 Alabama 0
36 Alaska 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Maine 0
40 Montana 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 119,461 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 64,650 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 50,185 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 46,743 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,697 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,597 211 93
Richland South Carolina 2,350 520 83
Pierce Washington 1,692 729 76
Orange California 900 1212 61
York South Carolina 790 1350 57

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,803 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,462 2 99
Early Georgia 2,355 3 99
Nassau New York 1,637 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,617 5 99
Richland South Carolina 101 499 84
Pierce Washington 57 760 75
Davidson Tennessee 42 921 70
Orange California 18 1267 59
York South Carolina 11 1386 55

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons